A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
